Case Study On Bond Default Of Noble Bird Company Limited

Since 2014,when China's bond market broke the original "rigid redemption",China's bond defaults have occurred frequently and the amount of default has continued to rise.The issue of credit risk in the bond market has become increasingly prominent and has become the primary threat to the long-term and healthy development of China's bond market.In such a social credit environment,the study of corporate debt default is of great significance whether it is for the enterprise itself,investors,financial lending institutions,or management institutions.This paper first systematically sorts out the theoretical research,model research and model evolution process of financial distress and bond default by domestic and foreign scholars,and focuses on the relevant content of the leverage cycle theory and financial distress theory.The leverage cycle theory is mainly understood from the overall macro perspective.The relationship between leverage ratio and changes in corporate financing environment and debt default.The theory of corporate financial distress mainly elaborates from a micro perspective the characteristics of the stages that companies face before bond defaults,the causes of financial distress,and the financial distress prediction model(Z-score model).The case introduction part mainly introduces the basic situation of Guirenniao shares,business model and company operation status,and reviews the process,results and follow-up disposal of Guirenniao shares bond default events.The case analysis part mainly analyzes the reasons for the default of Guirenniao shares.The macroeconomic level mainly includes the slowdown of economic growth,the "slow down" of monetary policy,the "deleveraging" cycle,and financing costs.The industry level is mainly from the demand side,Analysis on the supply side,int ernational trade side,and industry leverage cycle;the company level is mainly analyzed from the perspective of Guirenniao's corporate governance,financial level,and corporate financing behavior and leverage cycle;the intermediate level of information is mainly analyzed from the perspectives of auditing agencies and credit rating agencies Finally,the Z-score model is introduced to verify the effect and predictive performance of the financial distress prediction model in Guirenniao's debt default.It is found that the model can predict the company's financial distress and the occurrence of debt default earlier and more accurately.Finally,summarize the enlightenment of Guirenniao's default incident on supervision,other companies in the industry,credit rating agencies,audit agencies,models,etc.,and give targeted policy recommendations.