Design Of Cross Hedge Domestic Oil Price Risk

Affected by the epidemic sweeping the world,stop production home isolation,economic stagnation and other problems coming.In April 2020,the negative price of international crude oil futures appeared for the first time,which led to the event of BOC crude oil treasure crossing position,which aroused my concern about the price fluctuation of crude oil and domestic oil products.The complex relationship between supply and demand of crude oil makes its international market price of crude oil volatile.Since most crude oil in China is imported,the rise in oil prices will inevitably affect the price of the domestic crude oil industry chain.So It is natural that oil prices will go up.Under this background,refined oil as the downstream industry of crude oil industry chain,of course,can not escape the fate of price increase.According to statistics from the National Commission for Development and Reforms,the demand for refined oil in China shows an increasing trend year by year,and gasoline and diesel oil,as the basic energy essential products,is widely used in various industries.Among them,transportation industry gasoline and diesel consumption is the largest,accounting for more than 50.However,fuel costs account for more than 30%of the cost expenditure of such enterprises,and the increase in the price of refined oil will undoubtedly increase the operating burden of the enterprise.Although enterprises can transfer risk to consumers through price increase,there are many problems in the actual operation process.For large and medium-sized logistics enterprises such as Sitong and Dongfang Xinjie,it is less feasible to reduce the pressure of enterprises by raising freight,because the same type of enterprises usually sign long-term contracts with customers and can not maliciously raise freight in order to relieve their own operating pressure.In order to avoid this kind of dilemma,this paper designs a scheme to hedge the risk of domestic oil price rise,which makes the enterprises with oil price rise more comfortable.Reduce the cost of rising losses.To prevent companies from facing the dilemma,this article formulates a series of hedging plans to increase domestic refined oil prices in response to the problems that have been identified,which focuses on the refined crude oil pricing mechanism based on the use of different Futures Portfolio position and a combination of the characteristics of this plan to introduce price difference index,it is suggested to close the position at the right time.The international crude oil futures market has strong volatility,enterprises can reasonably divide the hedging interval,to capture more favorable points for closing positions.In order to truly achieve the purpose of hedging the price risk of domestic refined oil and ensure the effectiveness of the hedging scheme,this paper has revised the scheme after many simulation tests and revised the simulation effect.It can meet the hedging demand of domestic oil price sensitive enterprises to a certain extent.