The Impact Of International Oil Price On China's Oil-related Industries

In April 2020,under the dual effects of the Covid-19 epidemic and OPEC's production cut,the price of crude oil plummeted and fell to a negative value.In the following period of time,oil prices fluctuated more drastically.The fuse of the futures market also followed.Financial markets in various countries have been impacted to varying degrees.The degree of market panic has risen sharply.The deep integration of the global economy makes the impact spreads faster.China is highly dependent on oil imports.For a foreseeable long period of time,market participants and regulators need to pay more attention to the international oil market.Based on previous scholars' research on the relationship between oil prices and domestic stock markets,this article uses data from 2012 to 2020,from the perspectives of industry classification and the oil industry chain,and analyzes the relationship between WTI oil prices and stock index return through qualitative analysis and the VAR model.The first perspective is to classify the oil-related Shenwan first-level industry indexes(excavation,chemical industry,steel,non-ferrous metals,transportation,public utilities,and automobile industries)into four oil-related industries(oil production industry,oil consumption industry,oil substitution industry and oil complementary industry),and analyze the response of different industries.The second perspective is to start from the petroleum industry chain,analyze the response of CITIC's three-level industry index(oil extraction,oil product sales and storage,and refining industries)to international oil price shocks.This article then analyzes the impact of oil price changes on the index returns of the upstream,midstream and downstream industries in the petroleum industry chain.This article draws the following conclusions:From the perspective of industry classification,changes in international oil prices have a one-way Granger causality relationship with the index returns of the four oil-related industries,and the impact degree are different.Among them,the impact of oil prices on oil production and consumption industries is relatively strong,while the impact on oil substitution and complementary industries is relatively weak.At the same time,the effective impact of international oil prices on the first-level industry index is positive,and the response path is similar.From the perspective of the petroleum industry chain,compared with the industry classification,the impact of oil prices on the upstream,midstream,and downstream industries of the industry chain is stronger,and the direction is positive.In addition,the impact of oil price shocks has been absorbed by the market in the short term,and the continuity is weak.Finally,based on the analysis and research of the full text,some suggestions are made for market investors,oil-related companies and industry development:For index fund investors,in addition to conventional analysis methods,it is also necessary to pay attention to the position ratio of the funds.For oil-related companies,companies classified into different categories must take targeted hedging measures.At the same time,it is necessary to establish a systematic risk early warning mechanism and be good at using futures for hedging to avoid risks.For the industry,we should develop new technologies and the futures market.