Research On The Effect Of The Fluctuation Of International Crude Oil Price On The Fluctuation Of Stock Market In Belt And Road Countries

Crude oil is a key commodity in economic producti on,and it has two attributes of production factor and consumption factor.In the stage of global economic integration and financial globalization,the drastic fluctuation of world crude oil price can have a huge impact on the global economy.The stock mar ket is a key symbol of a country's economic growth and development.The stimulation of the fluctuation of world crude oil price can also be transmitted to the stock market level.The "one belt and one way" initiative has increased the linkage between financ ial markets,especially capital markets in related countries,creating new historical opportunities for our investors and energy industry.In this context,this paper examines the linkage between crude oil prices and the stock price returns of major countr ies along the belt,and analyzes the impact of international crude oil prices on the volatility of major stock markets along the "one belt along the way",which has important theoretical and practical significance.This paper uses WTI crude oil price,Singapore STI index,Russia RTS index,Qatar MSCI index,UAE MSCI index,Indonesia jkse index,India Mumbai sensex30 index,China Shanghai Composite Index,Malaysia index,KLSE.GI Index,Greece ASE composite index,Egypt CMA index,Saudi Arabia all index,Vietn am Ho Chi Minh index,Kuwait MSCI index,Philippines The daily closing prices of the binmanila composite index,Kazakhstan MSCI index,Oman MSCI index,Ukraine MSCI index and Turkey MSCI index from January 1,2009 to December 31,2019 of daily closing price as research object.One belt,one road sample,is established to analyze the dynamic correlation between international crude oil price and the sample price of a sample country by establishing DCC-GARCH model and BEKK-GARCH model.The empirical results show that the price change of crude oil market will affect the stock market,and there is a risk spillover effect between the markets.Russia index crude oil,Kazakhstan index crude oil,Singapore index crude oil,Greece index crude oil,Indonesia index crude oil,Philippines index crude oil,Ukraine index crude oil,Turkey index crude oil,UAE index crude oil,India index crude oil,Qatar index crude oil,Egypt index crude oil,Saudi index crude oil,Kuwait index crude oil,China The dynamic correlation between index crude oil,Malaysia index crude oil,Vietnam index crude oil,Oman index and crude oil decreased in turn.One belt,one road,is to reduce the impact of international oil pric e fluctuation on stock market: First,form the "supply chain" of "crude oil market" in the region,and aim at building a regional crude oil market,and lighten the impact of international crude oil price shocks on the stability of stock market.Second ly,we need to strengthen the continuity,coordination and stability of nati onal macro-control policies in the region,and reduce the impact of crude oil price shocks on the stability of the stock market in the international market.Third,strengthen investor education,guide investors to dynamically adjust the combination of fina ncial instruments,and maintain market stability.