Study Of The Effect Of Shanxi's Coal De-capacity Policy Based On Dynamic CGE Model

Recently,affected by slowing economic growth and energy reform,coal demand in Shanxi Province has fallen sharply,the supply continues to be excessive,and the relationship between coal supply and demand has been seriously imbalanced,leading to a general decline in the benefits of coal enterprises,chaotic market competition and increased pollution emissions,which have adversely affected economic development,social stability,and the ecological environment.To solve this problem,Shanxi Province has implemented coal de-capacity policy,but it's unknown that how does this policy affect Shanxi 's coal resource-based economy and environment? Hence,this paper uses the dynamic computable general equilibrium(DCGE)model to study the effects of output-controlled coal de-capacity policy and investment-controlled coal de-capacity policy on the economic development and on the environment in Shanxi.Development and ecological impacts have identified whether the implementation of the coal de-capacity policy is conducive to alleviating the resource curse effect of coal resource-based regions.The main contents of this paper are as follows.Firstly,this paper reviews the research on overcapacity and de-capacity.Secondly,it expounds the related research on the ways to solve the resource curse.Thirdly,it constructs a dynamic CGE model with 7 modules,and sets four coal de-capacity policy scenarios;finally,simulating the impact of different types of coal de-capacity policies on Shanxi's energy,economy and environment,and linking it to the resource curse theory to identify whether the implementation of coal de-capacity policies is a “booster” or an “obstacle” for coal resource-based regions.This paper concludes the following conclusions and policy recommendations.Although the output-controlled coal de-capacity policy will have a negative impact on the government revenue,coal industry output and employment in,it promotes the increase of GDP,social welfare,and significantly reduces the sulfur dioxide and carbon dioxide emissions.The implementation of the output-controlled coal de-capacity policy can effectively promote economic growth and improve the investment environment,then has a significant positive effect on cracking the resource curse.The investment-controlled coal de-capacity policy has a broaden negative impact of on the economy,but the implementation of this policy is conducive to the realization of pollutant emission reduction goals.The investment-controlled coal de-capacity policy is conducive to weakening the coal industry's lock-up on factors,increasing the regional economic development level,and helping to crack the resource curse.However,this policy has a significant negative impact on economic growth to a certain extent,which weakens the cracking effect on the resource curse.We find that the output-controlled coal de-capacity policy and the investment-controlled coal de-capacity policy both can effectively moderate the resource curse effect in coal resource-based regions,but the latter has a scant effect on resource curse.Therefore,the output-controlled coal de-capacity policy should be the first-choice policy of the government.