The Studies Of Fractal Market Based On SIR Model With Periodic Solution ——Consider China's Securities,for Example

This paper innovatively combines behavioral finance theory with fractal market theory and applies it to the study of China's securities market.Firstly,under the framework of the fractal market theory,this paper uses the Hurst index to calculate the average cycle of China's securities market in the past five years and uses the move Hurst index to determine the market reversal point and provide a market timing strategy.Then,under the framework of behavioral finance theory,this paper models the flow of share capital based on the SIR model with periodic solution,and the model can organically combine with the calculated average cycle of the market.Finally,this paper uses the Bayesian Regularization Neural Network to estimate the parameter values of the model,and the results are within the reasonable range.The conclusion reached is: There is a cyclical contagion in investment behaviors in China's securities market,and this cyclical contagion leads to the existence of an average cycle in the market;at the same time,the existence of an average cycle in the market also leads to cyclical contagion of investment behaviors.In the past five years,the average cycle of China's securities market is about 400 trading days.The flow of share capital model established in this paper can be used to study the China's securities market.