Reliability Analysis Of Barrel Life Based On Degradation Data

As one of the core components of the artillery and even the weapon system,the barrel has a decisive impact on the normal operation of the entire system.However,the harsh working environment determines that the barrel is usually the most vulnerable part of the weapon system.Reliability analysis is of great significance.As a long-life and high-reliability product,the failure life data of the barrel is often difficult to obtain and the cost is huge,and the traditional reliability analysis method is difficult to obtain the ideal effect.In this regard,this paper selects two performance parameters,the ablation of the inner bore and the degradation of the initial velocity of the projectile,to model and analyze the reliability of the barrel from the perspective of degradation data.The main work is as follows.(1)Analyze the failure process of the barrel.First,the failure mechanism,law,failure phenomenon and evaluation criteria of the barrel are expounded;then,on this basis,two performance parameters that can best characterize the reliability of the barrel are determined,namely the ablation of the inner bore and the degradation of the initial velocity of the projectile;finally Starting from the theoretical analysis of the reliability of the degradation data,the relevant indicators of the barrel reliability and the commonly used statistical distribution models are introduced to provide a theoretical basis for the follow-up research.(2)Establish the reliability analysis model of the barrel based on the time series.Firstly,the ablation volume of the inner bore of the barrel is regarded as a special time series,the double exponential smoothing method is used to fit the degradation amount,and the ablation volume of the inner bore of the barrel in the future is predicted.Subsequently,the pseudo-failure life of the barrel is determined by the established model combined with the failure threshold.Considering that assuming that the pseudo-failure life of the barrel follows a certain distribution,the evaluation results will be biased.Therefore,before modeling the reliability of the barrel,the Pseudo-failure life for individual distribution identification.Finally,according to the A-D test results,the log-normal distribution is selected to establish a reliability analysis model,and the reliability analysis of the barrel is completed by combining the degradation data to verify the validity of the model.(3)Based on Wiener process and Copula function,the reliability analysis model of barrel is established.Aiming at the problem that only considering the ablation of the inner bore to evaluate the barrel reliability may lead to more idealized results,a reliability analysis model of the barrel under the degradation of multiple performance parameters is proposed.Firstly,based on the Wiener process,the corresponding single-performance degradation reliability analysis models are established for the ablation of the bore and the degradation of the initial velocity of the projectile,and the corresponding failure distribution functions are obtained.Then,three different Copula functions are used to combine the respective marginal distribution functions under the consideration of the correlation between the two degradation parameters.Finally,the optimal Clayton-Copula function is selected through a comprehensive comparison of the four indicators to complete the reliability modeling of the multi-performance degradation of the barrel,and the model is verified by combining the degradation data.The results of performance factors are compared,which proves that the model is effective.Through the establishment of single-parameter and double-parameter reliability analysis models of the barrel,the degradation process of the barrel is analyzed in detail,which provides a theoretical basis for the reliability assessment of the barrel in actual work and subsequent maintenance and replacement.