Analysis On Influencial Factors And Prediction On Total Retail Sales Of Social Consumer Goods

The total retail sales of social consumer goods is the sum of the retail sales of individual or collective consumer goods ordered by whole and sale retail trade,catering and other industries.It is an important indicator to study the life of pepole,purchasing power of consumer goods,currency circulation and other issues.At the same time,it is also an essential indicator to study the national economy.It provides the basis for the government to understand commodity circulation,to conduct corresponding policies,and to improve macro regulation on the trade industry.First of all,the dissertation presents the six leading factors affecting the total retail sales of social consumer goods by the random forest regression model.Afterwards,the dynamic regression model with independent variables and the seasonal ARIMA model without independent variables are constructed to forecast the total retail sales of social consumer goods from 2010 to 2019.At the same time,the prediction effect of the two models is compared,and it is found that the dynamic regression model with explanatory variables is better than another.Next,we estimate the impact of the COVID-19 on the retail sales of consumer goods by intervention analysis.And the result shows that the negative impact of the COVID-19 on consumption has not been over until the end of2023.Finally,several suggestions are given to improve the consumption of our country based on the above analysis and prediction.