Estimations Of Water Balance Components Of Guder Catchment Using The Swat Model Under Climate Change,in Upper Abbay Basin,Ethiopia

Climate change would cause changes in hydrological cycles and water availability.The quantification of hydrological components is critical for assessing and managing water resources.Model calibration(1986 to 1997)and validation(1998 to 2001)were performed for the monthly flow at the Guder measuring station.After being validated by monthly flow data observed by Guder hydrological station,the model is used to assess the water yield of each hydrological component by simulating the whole watershed hydrological process.Results show that the calibrated SWAT model performs ideally under both the calibration and validation period.Under observed climate data,the contributions of precipitation to streamflow,evapotranspiration,and groundwater percolation to shallow aquifers were 88%,9% and 65%,respectively.The water yields of the entire sub-basins were measured,from 926 mm to 1340 mm per year.The overall water yield could be reduced by 0.37 mm per year under RCP 4.5from 2024 to 2086,while under RCP 8.5,it could decrease by 3.2 mm per year,which is a noticeable downtrend.The findings provided a reliable forecast on Guder Catchment water yield and water balance components in the foreseeable future.It could also be used as a foundation for determining other effects caused by land cover change and climate change.Local government agencies might also organize projects to address community water challenges.