Time Series Analysis Model And Its Application In Hubei Economic Analysis

Among the key factors affecting the social economy,the resident population and GDP are two important factors,which are the indicators to evaluate the development strength of a region and compare and measure the comprehensive situation.From the perspective of China’s future economic strategy of stimulating consumption by domestic demand,these two indicators also play a driving and promoting role in the analysis of the existing economy.Registered residence has been a popular topic for many years.Demographers often talk about the demographic dividend.In recent years,the conditions for attracting new and high skilled and age related labor have been relaxed.The conditions for relaxation in many areas have been gradually relaxed.Many people are looking for more job opportunities,and have a better environment for future generations to choose to transfer their household registration to first tier cities and even immigrants.The interaction between the number of permanent residents and GDP is a hot issue in recent years.Population is the vitality of a society and a nation.Population is the most important factor in the composition of a country.If we want the average distribution and optimization of resources in our country,narrow the regional gap,let the economic development surge in cities,adjust the gap between the rich and the poor between urban and rural areas and optimize the economic structure,we should rely on the management of population flow.Today,China’s rapid economic growth,the completion of the goal of comprehensive poverty alleviation,reflects the importance of population development.Since the reform and opening up,most of the achievements of our country and our province also owe to the people.However,the role of population is not entirely positive.Too fast flow and unstable migration will bring negative pressure on the development of cities in the two places,such as heavy social burden,unfavorable government management,uneven distribution of public resources,and overload of social operation.If the total population inflow increases,social security and other control problems will bring pressure on the management and development of the city,which will involve a series of medical departments,food safety departments,production departments,education industry,real estate industry and other aspects.The introduction of permanent population is the basis of age-appropriate labor force,which provides a strong guarantee for the stability of urban labor force.Strengthen and improve the rural and urban medical system,remote medical insurance,the popularization of electronic social security card;strengthen the supervision of food,315 consumer rights meeting,open the citizen reporting hotline;effective and reasonable production and economic development;focus on education investment,increase adult professionalism and professional training efforts;ensure the construction and development of relocated housing and public rental housing,standardize the management of the real estate market To provide convenience for residents in terms of clothing,food,housing and transportation,to provide the basis for leaving high-quality labor force,and to provide strong guarantee for urban economic construction.This paper briefly describes the general situation of China’s regional economic development,further analyzes Hubei’s regional economy and population,and deeply analyzes Hubei’s regional economy,so as to lay a theoretical foundation for the further analysis of the relationship between GDP and permanent population,and make more intuitive,efficient and meaningful data analysis.This paper mainly uses cointegration theory,ADF unit root test,impulse response and variance decomposition theory to make an empirical analysis on the two economic variables of Hubei permanent population and GDP from 2001 to 2019.In order to avoid fallacious regression,cointegration test is carried out to predict the long-term linear relationship between the two,and then impulse response function is used to analyze the short-term relationship,and relevant policy suggestions are put forward.The results show that: first,there is a significant long-term linear equilibrium relationship between the number of permanent residents and GDP in Hubei Province,which is a causal relationship,influencing or restricting each other’s development,and promoting each other.Second,through the impulse response function and variance decomposition,the resident population Series in Hubei Province is greatly affected by itself,while GDP series has less impact on it,and has an obvious lag effect.The impact of GDP series on itself and resident population is obvious.Generally speaking,the migration of population makes the scale larger,which is an important indicator affecting and determining the regional economic development and the comprehensive strength of the region.When the economic development is good and the comprehensive capacity increases,more foreign workers will be attracted to settle down,but the population factor is less affected by GDP and has a lag effectTherefore,we should give full play to the government’s guiding role and fully release the policy function of "talent dividends".Along with the aging of urban areas,we should focus on tackling the problems of agriculture,countryside and farmers,and achieve coordinated development of urban and rural areas,promote the industrialization,scale and systematic development of rural areas,innovate scientific management services,protect the rights and interests of migrant population,accelerate the reform of registered residence system,attract talents to stay in the city,and vigorously promote the reform of household registration system.We should publicize the provincial culture and urban culture,build a civilized city and create a positive image of the city.