Research On Epidemic Risk Prevention And Control Strategies Of Resumption Enterprises Based On System Dynamic

With the rapid development of society and economy and complex changes in the environment,public health emergencies at home and abroad occasionally occur.The outbreak of the epidemic often leads to abnormal economic and social shutdowns.In order to speed up the economic recovery,ensure the smooth resumption of work and production of enterprises,and minimize the losses of the country,enterprises and individuals,how we need to control the epidemic is an urgent problem to be solved.This article uses COVID-19 as the background to identify the risks faced by enterprises that resume work,explore the multi-dimensional relationships among influencing factors,and propose targeted prevention and control strategies.This can provide theoretical significance and practical value for improving the epidemic risk management and control capabilities of enterprises that resume work.First of all,this article combines the reading of country,city,enterprise documents and related documents.Based on the socio-technical system model,26 factors of resumption of work has been identified from five aspects: personnel,organization and management,technical equipment,internal environment,and external environment.Through social network analysis,with various influencing factors as nodes,build a network of influencing factors of the epidemic risk of enterprises resuming work.By calculating the network density and node degree centrality,intermediate centrality and proximity centrality,the key influencing factors are distinguished.Secondly,this article introduces the basic theory and modeling steps of system dynamics in detail.The first step is to determine the system boundary,draw a causal relationship diagram,analyze the causal feedback loops of personnel,organization and management,technical equipment,internal environment and external environmental risk subsystems,and determine the internal structure relationship of each subsystem.The second step is to draw the stock flow diagram of the system by determining the variable types of each influencing factor.The third step is to use the G1 method to determine the weight of each variable,and use the function to establish the mathematical relationship between the variables,thereby establishing the system dynamics equation.In this paper,variable assignments and system dynamics equations are input into Vensim PLE to construct a complete system dynamics simulation model of the epidemic risk of enterprises that resume work,and verify the validity of the model.Finally,use the system dynamics simulation model to simulate and analyze.The system dynamics model is used to simulate the epidemic risk of enterprises that resume work and the change trend of the risks of various subsystems.Through sensitivity analysis,explore the impact of key influencing factors on the risk of each target.By adjusting the variable assignment of key risk influencing factors,the target risk value after the risk factor is controlled is compared with the initial value to detect the sensitivity of key influencing factors.Aiming at sensitive risk factors,corresponding risk prevention and control strategies are proposed.The research results of this article can provide a theoretical basis for the prevention and control of the epidemic risk of enterprises that resume work,and at the same time provide reference basis and reference value for future epidemic risk research of enterprises that resume work.