Research On The Basis Of Probability Science

Probability theory is a mathematical study devoted to the systematic characterization of random phenomena,which is widely used in aerospace,finance,economy,health care,public decision-making and other fields.In the history of the development of probability theory,there is always a dispute between subjectivism probability view and objectivism probability view.Subjectivism believes that probability cannot be separated from human cognitive uncertainty and background belief;Objectivism believes that probability is a basic fact of objective existence independent of human cognition.In a sense,the argument and game of two basic concepts shape the basic development of probability theory as a science.It is of great theoretical significance and practical value to deeply analyze the argument history of subjective and objective probabilistic view,deeply dig the ideological root behind it,and analyze the basic logic of the game between them.This paper will first show the two basic attributes of probability: the subjectivity and objectivity of probability.By quoting the relevant historical documents in the early,middle and late stages of the development of probability theory,the paper presents the core propositions of subjectivism and objectivism.And then,through to the founder of the theory of probability,the probability of subjectivism view PASCAL's representative is the representative figure of bayesian probability concept and objectivism the probability of mises thought idea,to display and analyze the basic content of subjective and objective socialist concept of probability,the thought the essence,and the focus of dispute between the two display and analysis,so as to facilitate further analysis of subjective and objective,the fourth chapter from the whole game logic.This article will focus on the controversy focus of subjectivism and objectivism,the advantages and disadvantages of the two probabilistic view of systematic comparative analysis and elaboration.It shows that in what sense the debate of subjectivism is a dynamic and organic process,and makes clear how subjectivism compensates for its own shortcomings by referring to its own theoretical defects and the main theoretical advantages of the opposing party.As we shall see,this continuous controversy and benign interaction between subjectivism and objectivism constitute the basic internal driving force for the development of probability theory and become an important reference for understanding the basic development history of probability theory.Finally,this paper attempts to give a new definition and interpretation of the subject-objectivism debate creatively by virtue of Kuhn's famous paradigm theory,so as to clarify the theoretical implication and practical significance of the subject-objectivism debate.Through the discussion and analysis of this paper,we can see that the basic development history of probability theory runs through the subjectivism-objectivism.The basic process of the rise and development of probability theory as a science must be understood with reference to the concepts of subjectivism and objectivism.At the same time,the dispute and relationship between subjectivism and objectivism probability view is a dynamic organic process,the development of probability theory itself in a sense is subjectivism and objectivism in the face of their own shortcomings and challenges to make up and improve their own process.