The Impact Of Institutional Quality On Trade Structure Based On Threshold Model

After the global financial crisis,in the face of the complex and volatile international situation and the increase of trade risk and uncertainty,China’s economic development is faced with the constraints of resources,environment and other production factors,and the "low-end embedded" development of foreign trade is no longer suitable for China’s current economic development needs.Historical research indicates that the low added value of China’s export commodities is not conducive to the healthy and stable development of China’s economy.After China’s economic development entered the new normal,the 13 th Five-Year Plan pointed out that China should increase the content and added value of labor-intensive products,improve the position of China’s industry in the global value chain,and give play to the role of export in promoting economic growth.A country’s Institution is the main indicator to measure its governance.A good institutional environment means that a country has a good environment for social development,which can fully tap its development potential,effectively prevent trade risks and improve its international competitiveness.It can be seen that the Institution has become the current economic development,trade structure optimization of the powerful pushing hand.Therefore,the research on the influence of institutional quality on the optimization of trade structure has become an important subject.This article first institutional quality and international trade as the core,combed the relevant system influence on the trade scale,trade patterns,trade structure of literature at home and abroad,summarizes the system of quality and connotation of the trade structure and build the system of quality index system,and the trade structure of proxy index,quantitative analysis was carried out on the two core indicators.Secondly,based on the existing research results at home and abroad,from the economic system,political system,legal system of three dimensions system quality was discussed the mechanism of the trade structure,and the paper quality and the trade structure of the system of the selected sample simple descriptive analysis,for nearly 10 years of the situation in our country.On the basis of theoretical analysis,this paper builds an econometric model and uses the panel data of 69 countries or regions from2008 to 2017 to analyze the influence of institutional quality on the export trade structure with STATA14.Firstly,the unit root test,co-integration test and Granger causality test of institutional quality and trade structure are carried out.It is found that institutional quality and trade structure have a causal logic relationship.Then,using the threshold model proposed by Hansen(1999),GDP is selected as the threshold variable to analyze the nonlinear influence relationship between institutional quality and trade structure.The results show that under different economic development levels,institutional quality has a structural mutation effect on the trade structure,and institutional quality has a "U-shaped" influence on the trade structure.Finally,this paper combined with the empirical results and the development status of China to put forward suggestions.