Deformation Mechanism And Prediction Of Baijiabao Landslide In Three Gorges Reservoir Area

The effect of water on the landslide is very large.Since the water storage in the Three Gorges reservoir area,the geological environment around the reservoir area has changed.The wading height of many slopes has undergone major changes,and the resulting geologica l disasters are even more To stand out.As a typical reservoir landslide,Baijiabao landslide has rich monitoring data and has monitoring data for more than ten years.It is affected by reservoir water level changes and rainfall.The Baijiabao landslide is located in the Xiangxi River in Zigui.The Baijiabao landslide is prone to instability and deformation under the influence of the reservoir water level rise and fal.Once the instability and damage are intensified,it will pose a huge risk to the residents' life,property and shipping.In view of the above problems,based on the previous geological data,monitoring data collection and field investigation of Baijiabao landslide,this paper analyzes the deformatio n characteristics and genetic mechanism of landslides,and analyzes the difference of evoked factors in different areas of landslides;using Geo-studio is carried out to analyze the change,stability and deformation of seepage field in the landslide under the actual working conditions of the landslide.Based on the response relationship between reservoir water fluctuation and landslide deformation,the hydrodynamic unloading and displacement rate response of the reservoir is established.The coupled unloading response ratio prediction model:establishes the response relationship between reservoir water fluctuation and landslide stability coefficient,predicts and predicts the deformation of Baijiabao landslide,and strives to provide reference for reservoir landslide prevention and mitiga t io n work.The specific content and research methods are summarized as follows:1)The landslide deformation area is divided into three areas according to the contribution degree of deformation induced factors.The I area is affected by the reservoir water level and rainfall fluctuation,and the III area is almost unaffected by the reservoir water level change.Affected by rainfall factors,Zone II is mainly affected by reservoir water levels,and rainfall factors are weak.2)Study the monitoring data of Baijiabao landslide from 2006 to 2018,combined with macroscopic geological survey,groundwater change,surface crack deformation,deep inclination,especially surface displacement(GPS),and analyze the factors such as cumula t ive displacement and displacement rate.The relationship between reservoir water level fluctuations,deep-seated over 10 years of monitoring data change influencing factors and its quantitative changes,combined with the latest built automatic monitoring data platform to analyze and predict future landslide deformation trends.3)Based on the water level change law of the Three Gorges Reservoir,combined with Geo-Studio software to carry out numerical simulation,analyze the seepage change of a hydrological year in the actual working condition of Baijiabao landslide,and calculate the stability of the landslide since the development of the monitoring work for several decades.The coefficient changes.4)Based on the unloading response ratio prediction model theory,analyze the response relationship between the water fluctuation of the Baijiabao landslide reservoir and the landslide deformation,establish the unloading response ratio prediction model,and use the numerical simulation results to establish the reservoir water fluctuation and landslide stability coefficient.The response relationship predicts and predicts the deformation of the Baijiabao landslide.The main contributions and innovations of this paper are:Based on the unloading response ratio prediction model theory,the response relations hip between the water fluctuation of the Baijiabao landslide reservoir and the landslide deformation is analyzed,and the unloading response ratio prediction model is established.The numerical simulation results are used to establish the response of reservoir water fluctuation and landslide stability coefficient.Relationship,forecast and forecast the future deformation of Baijiabao landslide.