Statistics And Cluster Analysis Of Epidemics

Complexity science' s researches on COVID-19 mainly include proposing models to predict the development of the epidemic,studying the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the spread of the virus and exploring changes in economic indica-tors during the epidemic.This article uses statistical analysis methods and cluster analysis methods to study the spread of COVID-19.The paper introduces the latest research results on the spread of COVID-19 at home and abroad.Then,a comparative analysis of the spread of COVID-19 in the United States and five European countries in terms of the number of newly diagnosed people and growth rates,government intervention and population mobility.The study found that the base of newly confirmed cases in the United States is large and has been increasing without a downward trend.Judging from the changes in the measures taken by various countries,in the early stage of the epidemic the number of deaths in the United States has increased the fastest,but the government has taken the smallest measures.Although the government measures have increased in the medium term,they are still relatively low compared with European countries.From the perspective of population mobility,the time spent at home by American residents has not increased significantly and the frequency of visiting public places is also higher than in other countries.To further explore the factors affecting the spread of COVID-19.Firstly,using hierarchical clustering method cluster analysis on the death toll and average social distance data of each state in the United States,the study found that the epidemic situation in California,Texas,New Jersey,Florida,and New York is more serious.Secondly,by calculating Spearman's correlation coefficient,it is found that popu-lation density,average social distance and the proportion of the African-American population have a strong correlation with the cumulative number of confirmed cases.Finally,after calculating the Lyapunov exponent,it is found that there is a positive Lyapunov exponent which indicates that the system has chaotic characteristics and is sensitive to initial conditions.This article takes the spread of COVID-19 as an example to study the statistical laws of the epidemic and explore the similarities and differences of the spread of COVID-19 in the United States and other countries.This has a guiding role for the government to formulate emergency measures and has reference significance for the prevention and control of the epidemic in various countries.