Research On Forecasting Model For Scale Development Of Regional Distributed Generation And Application

As an important part of the new power system with new energy,the distributed generation supports the establishment of a clean,low-carbon,safe and efficient energy system,and is promoted by the reform and improvement of quality and efficiency in the energy field.As the distributed generation enters the stage of large-scale development,it is urgent to sort out and analyze the influencing factors of the development and establish a macro and comprehensive scale development forecast tool to carry out scientific predictions on the scale development of the distributed generation.Firstly,the opportunities and challenges of large-scale development of the distributed generation,application scenarios and business models,capacity calculation research and power structure prediction technologies and methods are summarized and briefly reviewed,to clarifies the importance and complexity of the scale development prediction of the distributed generation,as well as the practice and method basis of forecasting model construction.Then,from the technical and economic characteristics,scale process and development obstacles,the development status of the distributed generation in China is comprehensively analyzed.At the same time,the influencing factors and regional differences of the scale development of the distributed generation are elaborated,and the influencing factors network of the scale development of the distributed generation is described.After that an index system is constructed,based on the literature research,to carry out the difference comparison of the regional development environment of the distributed generation,which provides a qualitative basis for the construction of theforecasting model of the scale development of the distributed generation.Next,this paper proposes a three-layer regional distributed generation scale developmentforecasting model,which takes into account a variety of influencing factors.Based on the technology diffusion model,the learning curve,the levelized power cost and the entropy weight method,the model can predict the development trends of different distributed generation in different regions and obtain the development scale prediction data of each time series node by organically combining the characteristics of different distributed generation,development potential,project economics,supporting policies and regional development environment differences.Finally,the model is applied to predict the scale development of the distributed generation in 31 provincial administrative regions of China and the development trend of different distributed generation in different regions is compared and analyzed,to put forward the suggestions for large-scale development of regional distributed generation.Based on the distributed generation,this paper proposes a three-layer regional distributed generation scale developmentforecasting model considering multiple factors,whose prediction is found to be more in line with the good trend of the future development of distributed power than the simple technology diffusion model,and gives specific guidance and suggestions for the large-scale development of distributed power.The model provides a new prediction method for the research on the development trend of the distributed generation,which helps to accurately grasp the energy development trend,supports the decision-making of long-term development and application planning of the distributed generation,provides the basis for the positioning of regional distributed generation development and provides the reference for relevant industry enterprises,and thus is of great significance for the healthy and orderly development of the distributed generation.