Research On Power Investment Optimization Considering Adequacy Risk Of Peak Load Regulation

At present,China has become the country with the highest installed capacity of wind power in the world.However,due to the unreasonable power structure,weak grid planning and limited load scale in grid-connected areas,wind spillage and even threats to system security often occur.In July 2017,the National Energy Administration put forward the requirements of strengthening the leading role of renewable energy development planning and improving the construction scale management mechanism of wind power and photovoltaic power generation in the "Guidance on the Implementation of the 13th Five-Year Plan for the Development of Renewable Energy".Adequacy of peak load regulation capacity in power system is a key factor limiting the construction scale of wind power.If the peak load regulation of power system cannot meet the demand of peak load regulation,and investors do not consider the cooperation between investment of wind farm clusters and conventional units,then the random construction of wind farm clusters makes the adequacy of power system will not meet the operating requirements,which will lead to forced wind spillage instead of consumption,and affect the efficiency of investors and operation safety of power system.Therefore,it is necessary for power system to consider the adequacy of peak load regulation and the synergistic planning between the conventional units and the wind farm clusters,when studying the power investment optimization model.Firstly,this paper proposes a risk assessment process for adequacy of peak load regulation considering wind speed correlation.The concept and significance of the peak load regulation and demand of peak load regulation in power system are described,and the solution method for adquacy degree of peak load regulation is given by modeling.Based on the D-Vine Copula,an output model of wind farm clusters considering wind speed correlation is established,and a risk assessment index UCVAR is proposed based on the improved prospect theory.This index quantifies the adequacy degree of peak load regulation and simultaneously distinguishes risk attitudes of investors.To the end,an assessment model for adequacy risk of peak load regulation in power system is constructed,and the assessment process for adequacy risk of peak load regulation is put forward.Secondly,this paper constructs a power investment optimization model considering the adquacy risk of peak load regulation.The construction time and operation state of conventional units and wind farm clusters to be built are defined in the form of binary variables and matrices.The concept of European option is used to construct the economic value evaluation model for investment of wind farm clusters,and the variation trend of investment cost is described by modeling.A bi-level planning model is constructed and makes the maximization of comprehensive benefit and the minimization of adequacy risk of peak load regulation as the objective functions of upper-level model and lower-level model,respectively.And an economic equivalent coefficient of risk is introduced to punish the adequacy risk of peak load regulation in objective function of upper-level model.The sequential Monte Carlo simulation and the improved adaptive genetic algorithm are used to solve the model through the research and analysis of the existing algorithms for solving bi-level planning model.Finally,the improved IEEE 30-node test system is used as the basis of example analysis,and it is verified that the proposed bi-level planning model can ensure the overall benefit of power investment while controlling the adequacy risk of peak load regulation.Comparative analysis shows that the comprehensive benefit for synergistic planning of wind farm clusters and conventional units is better than wind farm clusters planning without considering the conventional units and adequacy risk of peak load regulation.Whether the wind speed correlation is taken into consideration,the choice of risk assessment index and the different risk attitudes of decision makers will have an impact on construction time planning of power to be built in the planning period.The research results of this paper are beneficial to orderly power construction and can avoid the disadvantages brought by investors’ unreasonable construction of wind farm clusters.