Determination Of Corn Income Insurance Rate At Counties In Jilin Province Based On Copula Method

China has a farming civilization of five thousand years.It is a large agricultural country and one of the largest grain producers in the world.However,there are still a variety of risks in modern agricultural production,such as the yield risk,cost risk and price risk caused by natural disasters,diseases and insect pests,which means that farmers who depend on the weather are faced with unpredictable risks.Since 2016,the No.1 document of the central government has set forth requirements for carrying out income insurance pilot programs.In 2020,it will further clarify and stabilize grain production,and promote the income insurance pilot programs for rice,wheat and corn.The insurance industry's exploration of income insurance can be traced back to 2012,when CPIC Rural Insurance took the lead in introducing income insurance to the Songjiang District Poverty Alleviation Base for the Disabled in Shanghai.In 2016,Shanghai launched a pilot program of income insurance for grain crops in some suburban areas,accumulating valuable experience for the nationwide pilot implementation of income insurance.Corn is the largest grain crop in China,as well as a cash crop and energy feed.China's total corn output and planted area have been increasing almost continuously since 2000,reaching a peak in 2015 with 264.99 million tons of corn output and 44,968 million hectares of corn planted area.After the cancellation of temporary storage policy,the total yield and sown area of corn decreased.Jilin Province is an important major corn producing area in China.In 2019,the corn sown area in Jilin Province was 4219.61 thousand hectares,and the corn yield was 30.45300 million tons,only lower than that of Heilongjiang Province.The output per unit area of grain(including rice and wheat)in Jilin Province ranks first in China.In March 2016,the state officially cancelled the temporary purchase and storage policy of corn in the three provinces of Northeast China and Inner Mongolia,and replaced it with"market purchase" and "subsidy".In the same year,the price of corn dropped sharply,causing huge losses to farmers,so that in 2017,the sown area of corn decreased,and farmers' enthusiasm for corn planting was greatly affected.The No.1 document of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council in 2021,Opinions on Comprehensively Promoting Rural Revitalization and Accelerating Agricultural and Rural Modernization(hereinafter referred to as Opinions),takes "rural revitalization" as the ballast of China's development strategy,and makes detailed arrangements for accelerating agricultural modernization and vigorously implementing rural construction actions.Planning new prospects for rural revitalization and development of "agriculture,rural areas and farmers" in the new era.The Opinions clearly required all provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities)to stabilize the area sown to grain and raise the level of yield per unit area during the 14th Five-Year Plan period.In addition,a very important concept is to accelerate the integrated development of urban and rural areas at the county level,strengthen the county economy,promote the urbanization construction with the county seat as the important carrier,etc.,that is,the rural construction action should take the county as an important entry point.Therefore,based on the pricing theory of income insurance in the counties of Jilin Province,this paper deeply analyzed the pricing methods of corn income insurance in the counties of Jilin Province by means of statistical simulation and combining with the current pilot policies of income insurance in China.This paper mainly does the following work:1.Analyzed the important position of corn in corn production in Jilin Province and the natural disasters it faced,and further explained the necessity of developing agricultural income insurance;2.Introduced the related theoretical knowledge of corn rate determination,such as parameter method to measure unit yield,price distribution,cluster analysis of zoning risk,Copula function,etc.;3.According to the temporary storage policy,it is divided into three periods,and the relationship between the total corn yield of the whole province and the current price and the last price,and the relationship between the yield change rate and the price change rate are analyzed;4.Different risk indicators were innovatively adopted at the city and county levels,and K-means clustering was used to conduct risk zoning at the city and county levels;5.Collect data of corn yield and price in each county,de-trend the data,calculate the distribution of corn yield and price fluctuation after processing,select the optimal Copula function,and get the joint distribution of corn yield and price;6.The Monte Carlo simulation method is used to sample the distribution,and the current pilot county income insurance policy in China and the "insurance+futures"project jointly carried out by financial companies are innovatively combined to calculate the income insurance rate of each county in Jilin Province based on the risk area classification.