| Pertussis(whooping cough)is a severe acute respiratory infection that mostly affects unimmunized children.It is caused by the bacterium pertussis.Respectively based on xinjiang kashgar in 2004-2015 pertussis each year of new cases of data and xinjiang kashgar in 2015-2018 monthly pertussis prevalence and fine particulate matter concentration data,constructs the dynamic model of pertussis infection,and then based on this dynamic model to influence the spread of pertussis related haze and constructing fine particulate matter(pm2.5)factors-the spread of pertussis nonautonomous dynamics model to analyze the spread of pertussis regularity and fog effect on the spread of pertussis cases,Through the model predictions early recognition to xinjiang kashgar region on the whole scene and the incidence trend of pertussis reveal the pathogenesis of pertussis and its popular rule,find the key factors influencing the whooping cough epidemic,the relevant departments of pertussis in the future research work provides a scientific theory foundation,also provides the kashgar region further control of the pertussis effective reference and the corresponding solutions.Methods:According to transmission mechanism of whooping cough,infection spreads dynamics modeling method to construct pertussis dynamics model,and then on the basis of this model,considering the factors that affect the spread of pertussis fog,and then constructs the whooping cough associated with haze nonautonomous dynamics model,which USES markov monte carlo algorithm(MCMC)and Latin hypercube sampling method the(LHS)to estimate the model parameters and sensitivity analysis respectively,and then in this paper,whooping cough based on the values of the parameters in the model with the next generation matrix method to calculate the basic reproduction number,According to the prevalence of whooping cough,concentration of fine particulate matter in the air of the development trend of data forecast model,the method of numerical simulation of air fine particulate matter in the degree of impact on the spread of pertussis cases,finally do sensitivity analysis of all parameters of the model,and then find out the key factors that influence the spread of pertussis,and put forward the corresponding prevention and control solutions.Results:(1)by analyzing the pertussis dynamics model,the model fitting results[mean absolute percentage error(MAPE=19.27%),Root mean square percentage error(RMSPE-2 7.35%)were obtained,indicating that the model fitting effect was good.The basic regeneration number R0=11.5192[95%CI:11.4648-11.5724],in this model is calculated,which can represent the possibility that the pertussis epidemic in kashi region of xinjiang is endemic.Through sensitivity analysis of model parameters,it can be seen that the transmission rate,8,recovery rate y and neonatal vaccination rate p of pertussis have important effects on the transmission of pertussis.(2)the structure of fine particulate matter-pertussis infection of nonautonomous dynamics model fitting the data,to predict A=78316,the total number of fine particles(pm2.5)in the air with periodic transmission rates under the influence of pertussis infection dynamics model and xinjiang kashgar in 2015-2018 years incidence and fine particulate matter concentrations data as the foundation,calculate the basic reproduction number R0=3.0184,indicate that the disease will always exist and endemic diseases,Using Latin hypercube sampling method and partial rank correlation coefficient(PRCC)draw a whooping cough caused by exposure to b1,contact frequency amplitude baseline b2,recovery rate ?,pertussis vaccine coverage p,hit rate of the immune system weakens after pertussis vaccine v and fine particulate matter concentrations in the air are on the spread of pertussis development plays an important factor.Conclusion:(1)The number of new pertussis infections in kashgar,xinjiang is on the rise.The relevant departments should strengthen the prevention and detection of high-risk groups,pay attention to the spread and prevalence of pertussis in kashgar,xinjiang on a regular basis,and prevent and stop the prevalence of pertussis by increasing the scope of observation subjects.(2)It can be seen from the numerical simulation that an increase in fine particulate matter(pm2.5)in the air can lead to an increase in the prevalence of pertussis and make pertussis epidemic faster,that is,the fine particulate matter in the air is directly proportional to the development of pertussis.Therefore,when the smog is severe,it is helpful to avoid going out as much as possible or to reduce the frequency and duration of going out,as well as to wear masks when going out,to alleviate the impact of fine particles on the transmission of pertussis.that is,m1 reduced. |
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