Research On The Relationship Between Underwriting Cycle And Business Cycle Of Property Insurance Industry

An important topic of the research on the operation law of the insurance industry is the underwriting cycle,which focuses on the changes of underwriting profit and compensation in the property insurance industry.In recent years,scholars pay more and more attention to it.Based on the existing research at home and abroad,this paper makes a more in-depth discussion on the underwriting cycle of China's domestic insurance industry from a regional perspective.This paper mainly studies the relationship between underwriting cycle and economic cycle in China.Firstly,it analyzes the impact of macroeconomic variables on the loss ratio of the national property insurance industry from the perspective of the whole country.Through variance decomposition,it is found that the Shanghai stock index and one-year fixed interest rate have the greatest impact on the loss ratio of the national property insurance industry,with the impact of 7.301% and 7.1655% respectively,and the impact of the two on the loss ratio of the national property insurance industry is not significant Always close.From the perspective of Granger causality,the Shanghai index and one-year fixed interest rate are Granger reasons for the loss ratio of the national property insurance industry,while the national property insurance loss ratio is not Granger reasons for the Shanghai index and one-year fixed interest rate.Because it is difficult to distinguish the main influencing factors,this paper studies the relationship between economic cycle and regional underwriting cycle from the regional perspective.According to the standards of the National Bureau of statistics,China is divided into four economic regions,namely,the northeast region,the eastern region,the central region and the western region.The results show that the loss ratio of different regions is affected by different economic indicators: for the eastern region,Shanghai index has the greatest impact on the underwriting cycle of the eastern region,reaching 6.49%.From the further analysis of impulse response,there is a negative correlation between them.According to HP filter analysis,there are four almost the same cycles in Shanghai index cycle and Eastern underwriting cycle between 2005 and 2019.The change of Shanghai index cycle is about three months ahead of the change of Eastern claims cycle.From the perspective ofNortheast China,the underwriting cycle in Northeast China is most affected by the financial expenditure of macroeconomic variables,reaching To 9.157%.Impulse response analysis shows that the impact of fiscal expenditure on the underwriting loss ratio in Northeast China is negative.According to HP filter analysis,there are four cycles in the fiscal expenditure cycle and the underwriting cycle in Northeast China during 2005-2019,and the cycle span is almost the same.The fluctuation of fiscal expenditure cycle is about1-3 months ahead of the underwriting cycle in eastern China.From the perspective of central China,Shanghai index has the largest impact on the underwriting cycle in Central China,reaching 9.713%.According to impulse response analysis,the impact of Shanghai stock index is negative.According to HP filter analysis,there are four cycles in the period of 2005-2019 between Shanghai index cycle and the underwriting cycle in the eastern region.The fluctuation of Shanghai index cycle is about 1-2 months ahead of the fluctuation of underwriting loss ratio in the central region.From the perspective of the western region,one-year fixed interest rate has the greatest impact on the underwriting cycle in the western region,reaching 13.332%.According to the further impulse response analysis,the influence of one-year fixed interest rate on the underwriting loss ratio in the western region is negative.According to the cycle results extracted from HP filter analysis,there are four cycles in Shanghai index cycle and Eastern underwriting cycle from 2005 to2019.