The Research Of Long-term Trends And Volatility Of Chinese Stock Market

In this essay,the long-term trend of China's stock market is measured& Analyzed in the paper,after that,the characteristics of the top and bottom areas are featured by statistics several sorts of variety during the top and bottom area in the Chinese Stock market.And summarize the quantitative conclusion of feature in past 25 years.In last part of this essay,discuss the margin trading development as a new tool in recent Chinese stock market,through the Grainger causality test,to verify whether the margin trading is a cause of enlarged market volatility.Finally provide suggestion and advises to both investors and market regulators.Create the evaluation system to estimate the risk level of Stock index.After retest on the history data,the result shown the system is valid,can evaluate the risk of market.