Gold Price Forecast And Analysis Based On GARCH Model

In modern society,gold investment market is highly hot.For wide range of investors,it is important to analyze reasonably.There are many factors which affect gold's price and the volatility is highly complex.In this article,we analyze inner system of gold price,then GARCH model is applied to analyze gold's price,which makes a research on actual data directly,instead of considering traditional macroscopic factors.GARCH model is frequently applied in high-frequency data modeling,which performs better in short-term prediction.After making first difference of daily series of gold's price from 2014 to February,2016,stable yield series are turned up,and GARCH(1,1)model is successfully established.Then we use this model to predict the trend of gold price in a month.