| This thesis adapts and evaluates longitudinal methods new to the study of competition in global industries and presents a framework combining the paradigms of corporate strategy and international economics to facilitate strategic analysis in a global context. Two methods of longitudinal analysis--ordinal time series analysis and shift share analysis--are compared using a Monte Carlo simulation. Their relative abilities to detect trends in data with known distributions, trends and errors are assessed. This simulation and analysis demonstrates the inappropriateness of the shift share method and the appropriateness of the ordinal time series method for the detection of long-term trends in the economy.;The value of the ordinal time series method for portraying patterns of behavior in the global economy and in global industries is then illustrated through application of the method to global trade in terms of the total imports, exports, and trade ratios for 176 countries, which then serves as a context for the analysis of petroleum trade data for over 50 countries, which in turn serves as the context for the strategic analysis of 24 international petroleum companies for the period 1966-1985. The purposes of this illustration are: (a) to provide a portrayal of international trade behavior in oil during an extremely turbulent period; (b) to relate this behavior to its effects on major groups of oil exporting and importing countries; and (c) to assess the effects on the oil industry and the changes in strategies of oil firms which accompanied these effects. This illustration demonstrates that important results can be achieved by combining the techniques of corporate strategy and international economics. By extension, the illustration demonstrates that application of the framework and methods of analysis to other strategic global industries is possible.;The results of this investigation represent a major advance in the understanding of the strategic factors involved in developing competitive advantages within strategic global industries. |
