| The failure of colonists to develop sustainable patterns of agriculture in the Brazilian Amazon is causing extremely rapid rates of deforestation. The failure is attributed to a variety of factors: the ecological inappropriateness of the region, the failure of government to provide adequate support, unfavorable markets for the crops, and inappropriate managerial skills of the colonists. There is no consensus about which factor produces the widespread failure of the agricultural projects because the various theories have not been quantitatively assessed in a systematic way.; This thesis assesses the relative importance of the ecological, economic, cultural, and political factors that determine agricultural output in the region. A data base is assembled from primary sources that reflects the salient features of the regions's ecology and demography, as well as the government policies towards the colonization projects. The data cover the years 1980 and 1985, and 16 municipios (counties). Factor analysis is used to identify the principal variables that reflect each of the factors influencing agricultural output. A cross-sectional regression model is used to measure and rank the specific variables determining output in the municipios. Separate models are developed for perennials, annuals, and pastures.; The regression analysis indicate that the major factor leading to a preference for perennial crops over annual crops or pastures is the simultaneous presence of small-size plots (2-5 ha), the availability of non-wage sharecropper labor, high fertility soils and moderate capital inputs. The absence of any one of these factors lead to a preference for pastures, the worst form of land use--environmentally and economically--for the region. When the influence of all factors are kept constant, the lack of labor is a major constraint, followed in importance by the soil quality.; The results indicate that through a flawed planning process, projects are located in poor soils, with plots too large for family labor alone and with little capital. The end results are colonists faced with depressed yields, indebtedness, and eventually, the loss of their lands to more capitalized ranchers. These ranchers convert these plots into pastures with government-subsidized credit as a form of land speculation. The results lead to the conclusion that poor planning and misplaced fiscal incentives, are the major causes of the failure of colonists to develop an economically and environmentally sustainable pattern of land use. |
