Evaluating spatial changes in the rate of insurgency-violence in Central Africa: The Lord's Resistance Army 2008--2012

Understanding the geographic distribution of insurgency violence is critical for assessing where counter-insurgency and civilian protections operations are effective. It allows researchers and policymakers to detect trends in violence and propose local programs designed to quell insurgency aggression in vulnerable areas. This thesis examines the spatial distribution of armed-conflicts in Central Africa committed by the Lord's Resistance Army from 2008 to 2012 and offers a descriptive evaluation regarding the geographic fluctuation of violence throughout the region. Existing counter-insurgency programs are discussed, and additional analysis is performed on the development of a high-frequency radio network designed to facilitate information sharing between communities. Resulting geographic representations indicate a steady decline in armed-conflicts in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and South Sudan with violence becoming more prevalent in the Central African Republic. The revealed fragmentation and variance in the LRA's operations supplement a growing body of research that seeks to better understand the geographic evolution of conflict, identify why violence may increase or decrease in certain areas, and assess the capacity for civilian protection initiatives in regions afflicted with insurgency (Buhaug and Lujala 2005; Flint et. al. 2009; Kobayashi 2009).