Following the Crowd: The Effectiveness of Campaign Personal Appearances During the New Hampshire Primary Seaso

The New Hampshire primary is a quadrennial political event like no other. We know that candidates place their hopes in the state, as they have for numerous election cycles, but we do not know the specifics on candidate appearances. Scholars have produced research pertaining to the effectiveness of campaign visits by candidates in other races, but the extent that we can apply this research to New Hampshire has yet to be established. In this paper, the conventional wisdom is examined. The conventional wisdom states that candidates must spend time and resources in New Hampshire in order to be successful in the New Hampshire primary. In the end, there is no relationship between the number of personal visits to New Hampshire and the voting results of the New Hampshire primary in most cases. Furthermore, the trends from these personal appearances shed light on partisan divisions and campaign finance differences. While this study examines a small subset of the overall presidential nomination race, it is a vital first step in learning more about the specific ground games that transpire during the course of the presidential primary season.