The role of migration, employment, and amenities in the growth of large United States metropolitan areas, 1950--1980

This study has five main objectives. The first is to resurrect the simultaneous-equations approach to urban growth, which has not been commonly found in recent years, by employing a simultaneous-equations model that takes into account the interaction between migration, different economic factors, and amenities. Various studies showed that migration and economic forces interacted significantly during the 1950s and 1960s. The second objective is to explore and examine this kind of mutual dependency for a wider range of years by including the 1970s. Therefore, the model is estimated for three different time periods (1950-1960, 1960-1970, and 1970-1980). Third, unlike previous models, the specification of this simultaneous-equations model is intended to endogenize the migrants' characteristics, specifically the employment status of civilian labor force in- and out-migrants. The fourth objective is to refine the methodology used in several prior simultaneous-equations models. This refinement includes both a more sophisticated treatment of census migration measures and a different econometric approach. Finally, this study gives more emphasis to the amenity variables in the context of simultaneous-equations models.;In this study, seven main data problems related to the thirty-year data base were taken into consideration. Two of these data adjustments especially distinguish this study from previous works. The first adjustment involves correcting SMSA migration data over the first five years, based on aggregate regional migration data. The second is that money income has been adjusted for inflation to get real income.;Among the findings of this study, the following five are considered to be of major importance. First, the mutual causation approach hypothesis, which has been tested during the 1950s and 1960s, is strongly supported by the empirical results during these two decades and also during the 1970s. Second, the hypothesis of opposite direction of movement of out- and in-migrants relative to each other tended to hold during each time period. Third, net migration of employed civilian labor force members significantly encouraged SMSA income growth, whereas net migration of the unemployed significantly discouraged such growth. Fourth, SMSAs with higher in-migration rates of employed CLF members experienced less-rapid growth of unemployment during each time period, whereas those with higher in-migration rates of unemployed CLF members experienced more rapid growth during the same periods. Finally, the results of this study are somewhat consistent with the equilibrium approach hypothesis that location-specific amenities are a major determinant of migration.