Optimizing the net benefits from pre-wildfire treatments to Colorado-Big Thompson Headwaters partnership water recipients

The vulnerability of water quality within Colorado's watersheds in the aftermath of wildfires has become palpable in light of recent wildfire events. The costs of damages and water treatment incurred by municipal water providers has exposed the need to take proactive measures to combat potential future wildfire impacts, especially when considering the susceptibility the surrounding forests have due to widespread Mountain Pine Beetle (MPB) impacts. The thrust of this research seeks to ascertain the cost-benefit tradeoffs associated with pre-wildfire treatments on areas where high-intensity wildfires are probable within the Colorado-Big Thompson Project (C-BT) boundaries through the resources of the Colorado-Big Thompson Headwaters Partnership. In particular, focus will be placed on determining the changes in water yields generated from applying hazardous forest fuel reduction treatments to forest stands using existing stand exam data. The stand exam data is then used to create a generalized model that is applied to individual units across the entire research area using regression data from a series of ArgGIS forest layers to predict water yield. These are then evaluated and compared in terms of the relative change in water yield given the application of three separate treatment approaches and a defined annual budget. At present, the water resources of the C-BT are entirely vulnerable to water quality degradation from potential wildfire events which could impose immediate reductions in available water and widespread economic damages to the C-BT and its nearly one million consumers.