Effects of late delivery of fertilizer under the farmer input support program on technical efficiency and maize production in Zambia

This thesis examined the effects of late delivery of subsidized fertilizer on smallholder farmer's technical efficiency and maize production in Zambia using nationally representative cross-sectional household survey data for the 2010/11 agricultural season. A maize yield response model at field level was estimated using a Stochastic Frontier Approach for cross-sectional data. Results indicate that late delivery of fertilizer reduces technical efficiency and maize yield by 4.2%. The estimated results are then extrapolated to quantify the loss in national maize output. The foregone maize output due to late delivery of fertilizer in the 2010/11 farming season was 84,924 metric tons. When valued at the government's maize purchase price, the forgone income is equivalent to USD 21.2 million. Furthermore, by limiting the sample to only households that obtained fertilizer from the Farmer Input Support Program (FISP), a probit model was used to determine whether household and individual attributes affect timely receipt to fertilizer. It was found that households with large landholding size and high value of productive assets were more likely to receive fertilizer on time, ceteris paribus. It was also found that households with social connections with village headmen/chiefs were more likely to receive fertilizer on time compared to other households. These results indicate that late delivery of FISP fertilizer is not random and that the relatively poor and marginalized rural households are disproportionately incurring the lower production and income effects of late fertilizer delivery.