ELECTRIC ENERGY SYSTEM PLANNING AND POLICY ANALYSIS USING LINEAR PROGRAMMING-BASED METHODOLOG

Electric generation planning usually involves finding a facility expansion strategy that minimizes present worth costs while meeting forecasted demands for electricity and other imposed constraints. The desired facility expansion gives the type of fuel technologists, sizes and in-service dates for all new power plants, which, when added to an initial power system, would optimize a chosen objective and satisfy all given constraints.;This thesis describes research undertaken to improve comprehensive generation planning techniques and, additionally, the application of the improved methodology to several contemporary planning issues. Among the issues addressed are those that pertain to the consideration of multiple objectives, the determination of the optimal plant size, and the treatment of the economic interaction between supply and demand.;Mathematical models are proposed to treat the planning issues of interest, and are integrated with a linear programming-based generation planning model. The resulting linear programming model is implemented in a powerful and efficient computational system which includes an interactive graphic data base inquiry program. The system is used in the analysis of scenarios to address the planning issues of concern to this thesis.;The relative reliability value of different sizes of coal plants is a factor in determining the optimal coal plant size. Reliability is treated in the linear program planning model through a linearized constraint on the "loss of load probability" due to a generation expansion plan. The constraint is calibrated by a reliability calculation which is separate from the linear program, and iteration between the reliability calculation and the linear program is performed to arrive at final, optimal, and reliability-feasible expansion plans. The reliability treatment is applied to a New York State planning scenario over the 1980-1999 time period for the determination of the optimal coal plant size.;Multiple objectives are treated in generation planning model through the "sequential objective analysis" technique. The technique allows different objectives to be "traded-off" against one another through a sequence of constrained optimizations which optimize different objectives in order of priority ranking. Sequential objective analysis is compatible with linear programming, and is illustrated through applications to possible planning objectives such as the minimization of oil consumption, the minimization of new plant construction, and others.;The generation planning program treats economic interactions between supply and demand through a model representing the dependence of electric demand on the electricity price. The model approximates the effects of price elasticity on demand through a linearized constraint in the linear program model, and is applied to the analysis of several planning scenarios. The results of the applications demonstrate the importance of treating price elasticity in the development of generation expansion plans.;In addition to the mathematical models, computer implementations and applications presented in this thesis, a review is given of the relevant previous generation planning approaches reported in the literature. The literature review and associated discussion motivate the proposed work, show how the new and the previous approaches differ, and describe the merits of the new approaches relative to the previous state of the art in generation planning.