| The thesis considers the macroeconomic and social impacts of privatisation with special reference to Portugal. Portugal has undergone one of the largest privatisation programmes in Europe over the period 1987 to 1998 with cumulative privatisation proceeds accounting for around 20 per cent of 1998 gross domestic product, the second highest share of all OECD economies, after Hungary over the same period. The privatisation programme will continue after the year- 2000, although the major share of scheduled privatisation had been completed by July 1998. Part I of the thesis considers the theoretical background to analysing privatisation at both the macroeconomic and microeconomic levels. The macroeconomic impacts of privatisation include the impacts of privatisation on investment, consumption, national productivity and competitiveness and employment. The thesis also considers the degree to which theoretical and applied analysis of privatisation has considered the social impacts of privatisation, including the impacts on employment, welfare, incomes, income distribution and access to services. It is recognised that the macroeconomic and social environments will also condition the impacts of privatisation, including macroeconomic and social stability as well as the existence of an appropriate institutional and regulatory environment. Part I also reviews the impacts of privatisation at the microeconomic or enterprise level and their linkages with the macroeconomic environment. Conclusions are developed from the theoretical and applied analysis of privatisation as to what are the likely impacts of privatisation given the experience of different types of economy, from planned to liberal and from high to low income. It is recognised that each economy has its own specific economic, social and cultural traditions which will affect the way in which privatisation is implemented and the likely success of implementation. The thesis adopts a case study approach by relating the conclusions of the theoretical and applied analysis presented in Part I to the case of Portugal. Part II of the thesis considers the historical economic development of Portugal, the macroeconomic trends and sectoral development and the development of the public sector and the subsequent privatisation programme. The impacts of privatisation in Portugal are considered from two angles. First the impacts are assessed at the macroeconomic and social levels. This analysis is based on macroeconomic data from a number of sources including the Ministry of Finance, the Bank of Portugal and the National Statistics Institute, as well as banks and research companies. A number of interviews were also held with key ministries, the central bank, privatisation advisors, the Lisbon Stock Exchange and regulatory agencies. Secondly, based on a survey and analysis of seventeen privatised companies, the evidence of the impacts of privatisation on financial and operating performance and employment is assessed. |
