A case study: Enhancing a learning organization with the construction of predictive models between local and state achievement assessments

The Local Education Agency has been operating parallel assessments to monitor the progress of its student's achievement, in doing so they failed to connect the two assessments. This parallel process made it impossible to identify where students were in the educational continuum or make adjustments in individualized instruction to raise the achievement level scores on the state required mathematics assessment (SEA) to the desired level.; Purpose of the study. The purpose of the study was to enhance the learning organization by constructing a predictive model between the district first-third grade mathematics assessment (LEA) to the SEA fourth grade mathematics assessment. This has connected the assessments and allows the district the capacities to learn from itself.; Methodology. The research method utilized six simple linear regression matched pairs (SR) and two multiple stepwise regressions. Statistical analysis, descriptive statistics were also utilized to interpret the data. The study population included all students enrolled in regular education; mathematics courses grades one-four in the years of 1999--2002, of a selected urban district in Missouri.; Results of the study. The Null Hypothesis was rejected, as there was a significant predictive relationship found between the LEA mathematics assessment and the SEA MAP mathematics assessment, by which student progress may be measured and predicted in grades K--4. The LEA percent scores (LEA-%) predicted the SEA performance level (SEA-PL). All analysis statistically was proven to be significant predictors. The range of scores and variance in the scores allowed for a large standard deviation (SD) that could span more than one PL. Applications of the models suggest that for each increase of one percent on the LEA the score will increase on the SEA by a range of .036 to. 104 levels. The district needs to identify students who are not achieving at the level the district desires in years prior to the MAP. The results of this research although significant, is still too broad for a district to be able to offer interventions that might impact the achievement of the students identified on the MAP.; These results confirm the need for a continuation of yearly assessments at the local level, as well as the adoption of policy that includes the analysis portion of the process in order to merge the two parallel assessments. Until the MAP test is given on an annual basis, in order to monitor the progress of the student over time, using this formula the district may now predict the dependant variable (MAP) using the results of the independent variable (LEA). The results would suggest the re-evaluation of the LEA is needed to understand the wide variance in the range of scores.