Climate change and forest fires in Yukon Territory

Climate change has the potential to affect the boreal forest of Canada. Forest fires are a crucial component of the boreal ecosystem and climate change may substantially alter the fire regime. Statistical relations between climate and forest fire were obtained by regression for three fire subdistricts (Old Crow, Mayo and Watson Lake) of Yukon Territory. The relations were derived from fire and climate records, available, in general, since 1960. Summer temperature was found to be positively correlated to forest fire occurrence, area burned, the Fire Weather Index and Seasonal Severity Rating. In most cases, summer precipitation and relative humidity were negatively correlated with these variables. Climate change scenarios were applied to these relations to project future forest fire regimes under a climate with doubled CO2. In comparison with the period of record, central Yukon may have significantly more fires, area burned and an increased fire danger in the future.