Population dynamics of semipalmated plovers (Charadrius semipalmatus) breeding at Churchill, Manitoba

This thesis describes the population dynamics of breeding Semipalmated Plovers (Charadrius semipalmatus) at Churchill, Manitoba. The objectives of this study were: (1) estimate rates of local survival and fecundity, (2) identify factors affecting survival and fecundity, and (3) estimate population growth rate (lambda) and determine sensitivity of lambda to changes in demographic parameters. Local survival rates were not sex specific but there was significant annual variation that was correlated with hatching success. All reproductive parameters except fledging success, showed significant annual variation. Previous breeding experience affected fledging success, but not hatching success. Pairs with an experienced male fledged more chicks than did all other pairs, but female experience did not affect reproductive success. Population growth rate (lambda = 0.846 +/- 0.046) was most sensitive to changes in adult survival, juvenile post-fledging survival and pre-fledging survival. The model predicted a population decline of more than 15%, but annual population censuses showed no population change.