Spatial patterns of population growth and habitat change in the Santa Monica Mountains under different local policy constraints

Substantial population growth and urban sprawl in Southern California since 1900 have produced tremendous land cover change and habitat losses for some species. The California Urban and Biodiversity Analysis (CURBA) model was used with six local policy scenarios to simulate future urban growth patterns and their impacts on the extent and qualities of selected vegetation and wildlife habitats. The results show that: (1) the CURBA model successfully predicted 93% of the development during the past 14 years; (2) the predicted changes in habitat extent and quality varied with each scenario and showed how different growth patterns may affect specific land cover types and species in different ways; and (3) careful land management will be required to manage the trade-offs between continued development, farmland protection, and ecological preservation in the study area.