| This thesis describes a technique for estimating near real-time temperature profiles using satellite altimetry and assimilating these profiles into a model of ocean-driven tropical cyclones for the purpose of forecasting intensification. Hypotheses are developed, and results are evaluated and discussed. Using data from a 10 year run of the University of Colorado's version of the Princeton Ocean Model (CUPOM), dynamic height anomaly and temperature fields are decomposed using three different methods, in order to develop a scheme for estimating synthetic temperature profiles based on near real-time dynamic height measurements. CUPOM forecasted and hindcasted temperature profiles are compared with in situ data as a means of evaluating the synthetic temperature profiles.; The temperature profiles are then used to estimate the ocean mixed layer depth and heat content. Making use of the whole column profile, different methods are used to estimate temperatures at depths in order to simulate events such as turbulent mixing, the passage of warm and cold eddies and other steric features, which are then assimilated into a tropical cyclone model provided by Kerry Emanuel. Forecast skill in estimating maximum surface wind speed, central surface pressure, storm center mixed layer depth; and updraft subsidance resulting from the near real-time temperature profiles is evaluated. |
