Do democratic transitions produce better human development outcomes? Empirical evidence from 40 years of regime changes

This paper examines empirically the relationship between democratic transitions and human development outcomes. It establishes that there is a distinct difference in long run outcomes as opposed to those in the immediate aftermath of regime changes. In contrast to the existing literature, which focuses on the effects of transitions with respect to economic growth, I look at democratization's effect on domestic policy outputs in the form of public services. Building on the theory of regime transitions, this paper hypothesizes that transitions lead to negative human development outcomes in the short run as new democratic institutions attempt to take hold. Unless supported by developed nations, these worsening conditions impose pressure on fledgling governments, leading either to transition reversals or to 'captured' democracies. To explore the impact of democratic transitions on the socio-economic development outcomes I apply panel data analysis to 161 countries between the years 1960 and 2010. The data is derived from two sources; political regime changes and characteristics are identified using Polity IV (2010) codes, and World Bank's World Development Indicators is the source for all human development indicators. This paper identifies 63 permanent democratization episodes in the period of study, and the fixed effect results across all five indicators (per capita gdp growth, safe drinking water provision, improved sanitation facilities, telephone connections, and child immunization rates) show diminishing or negative outcomes in the years immediately following a transition. This paper therefore highlights the difficulties in transforming institutional configuration and its impact on socioeconomic outcomes. These findings have implications for both domestic and foreign policy. For the transition to lead to the successful establishment of a democratic regime, the new government's policies must safeguard the population from the negative effects of the reformation period. These early years are the key to democratization, especially if the government wants to build credibility for itself and for the democratic process. International bodies that push for democratic transitions must recognize that replacing the authoritarian regime is only the first step in the process of establishing democracy. Developed nations need to embrace a more long term strategy that involves supporting the nascent government with both financial assistance and capacity building assistance.