Crisis in the Taiwan Strait: An assessment of the conflict crisis between China and Taiwan

Over the past fifty years the relationship between Taiwan and China has been characterized by confrontation. The nature of this relationship mirrors Cold War structural conflicts. After the Cold War international conditions changed, but the cross-strait conflict between China and Taiwan persisted. Researches such as Dittmer (1981) use the strategic triangle theory to show that the interactive relations among three actors---in this case China, Taiwan and the United States---and demonstrate how each nation's security and/or interests are affected by the relationships with and between the other two nations. Generally the strongest nation occupies the pivotal position in the strategic triangle and controls all of the relationships. This theory has been applied to determine the prospect for settlement of the Taiwan Strait issue and forecast how possible outcomes change over time (up to the year 2050).; For the purpose of this dissertation, I attempt to contribute to the understanding of the Taiwan Strait crisis and test the hypothesis: In the future the possibility of armed conflict between China and Taiwan will increase as China's power continues to rise if dissatisfaction between the two nations continues. The analysis compares characteristics of the regional powers to determine if China will overtake the dominant United States and thus introduce instability to the region.; China's economy is growing faster than the other main powers in this region and this growth brings the possibility that China will overtake the United States. Scholars within the realist tradition predict that the region will be peaceful and stable under this dynamic. Alternatively, Power Transition scholars argue that the probability of conflict increases when a challenger's power is approaches parity with the dominant nation. Continued peace will depend on the satisfaction of the new dominant power with the organization of the world system. According to this logic, measures taken by the United States to successfully aid China's integration into the community of satisfied nations, by joining organizations such as the WTO, will be the key for sustaining peace in this Asia region and the world system. Results of this analysis confirm that Confidence Building Measures (CBM) provide a mechanism for avoiding the conflicts that might be caused by misunderstanding in the Asia region.