| Chapter 1: We developed a non-linear regression model from first principals to predict the percent of precipitation interception from forest canopies using lidar as a measure of forest structure. To find the best parameters for the model, we measured thoroughfall of rain (n = 21), fresh snow (n = 21), and old snow (n = 26) on plots in the boreal forest of the upper Eklutna Valley, Alaska. We calculated a set of twelve lidar metrics for each plot, and found the combined metric of mean height * cover to be the lidar metric most highly correlated to ln(throughfall) for rain (r = -0.81), fresh snow (r = -0.79), and old snow (r = -0.73). Using mean height * cover in the interception model, we predicted mean interception for rainfall (20% +/- 3%), fresh snow (29% +/- 4%), and old snow (20% +/- 3%) across the vegetated portion of the upper Eklutna Valley.;Chapter 2: Climate changes and subsequent landscape-level responses have been documented throughout Alaska. We investigated the expansion of black (Picea mariana) and white spruce (Picea glauca) into open, herbaceous palustrine wetlands on Joint Base Elemendorf-Richardson (JBER) in south-central Alaska. We classified random points in wetlands across JBER using imagery from 1950, 1981, and 2012 to identify the extent and rate of spruce expansion. Additionally, we sampled 75 field plots in wetlands to age spruce trees and survey understory vegetation. We found tree cover in wetlands to have increased substantially from 1950-2012 (44% to 87%) with expansion over time fitting a logistic growth model well. Aged tree cores showed a recruitment pulse beginning the in 1930's and had a cumulative age distribution matching the logistic growth model of tree cover over time. The logistic growth model suggest spruce expansion began slowly in the early 1800's, coincident with the start of the current warming trend in Alaska. Using one representative wetland, we classified points on a 10 m spaced regular grid in 1950, 1981, and 2012 to show spruce expansion moving down the elevational gradient within the wetland -- a pattern observed throughout closed basin wetlands on JBER. Additionally, we found spruce expansion related to understory vegetation and wetland drainage shape (open basin, closed basin, or mixed). Finally, we propose a mechanism for the expansion of spruce into palustrine wetlands based on the timing and extent of vernal pooling. |
