| In-flight icing is a hazard that continues to afflict the aviation industry, despite all the research and efforts to mitigate the risks. The recurrence of these types of accidents has given renewed impetus to the development of advanced analytical predictive tools to study both the accretion of ice on aircraft components in flight, and the aerodynamic consequences of such ice accumulations. In this work, an in-depth analysis of the occurrence of in-flight icing accidents and incidents was conducted to identify high-risk flight conditions. To investigate these conditions more thoroughly, a computational fluid dynamics model of a representative airfoil was developed to recreate experiments from the icing wind tunnel that occurred in controlled flight conditions. The ice accumulations and resulting aerodynamic performance degradations of the airfoil were computed for a range or pitch angles and flight speeds. These simulations revealed substantial performance losses such as reduced maximum lift, and decreased stall angle. From these results, an icing hazard analysis tool was developed, using risk management principles, to evaluate the dangers of in-flight icing for a specific aircraft based on the atmospheric conditions it is expected to encounter, as well as the effectiveness of aircraft certification procedures. This method is then demonstrated through the simulation of in-flight icing scenarios based on real flight data from accidents and incidents. The risk management methodology is applied to the results of the simulations and the predicted performance degradation is compared to recorded aircraft performance characteristics at the time of the occurrence. The aircraft performance predictions and resulting risk assessment are found to correspond strongly to the pilot's comments as well as to the severity of the incident. |
