Dynamic modeling of Truckee River flows and economic implications for flood plain management

Nevada is the fastest growing state in the Union and the Truckee River Basin caters to one of the fastest growing regions in the state of Nevada. This study has the dual objectives of modeling Truckee River annual peak flood flows using environmental variables and forecasting the economic impacts of potential floods on the Truckee River Basin. This study uses a state space model to build a dynamic structural representation of Truckee River peak flows. The use of environmental variables other than just trends gives it a richer predictive framework. The derived framework is then applied to estimate the damage costs without upgraded flood storage protection and performs a benefit-cost analysis of having such measures for the Truckee River Basin.