| It was reported in the general press that global warming has resulted in the thawing of the Arctic seas and, hence, in a shorter trade route to Asia from North America. This present study using simulation techniques was conducted, to verify the feasibility of a commercial shipping venture if such an opportunity exists. A general purpose simulation language, VSLAM was used to check the trafficability. The economic performance was evaluated by estimating the required freight rate. For this purpose, a stochastic cost model was constructed, and a spreadsheet simulation experiment was conducted. Based on the required freight rate, it was found that the venture would be viable in the Asia-to-Canada trade route, even at an incremental capital requirement of 50%. The sensitivity of the "required freight rate" to various inputs was checked, and was found to be most sensitive to capital cost followed by, power demand in ice. |
