The influence of sea surface temperatures and northern hemisphere teleconnection patterns on eastern North Pacific tropical cyclone activity

The influence of sea surface temperatures and Northern Hemisphere teleconnection patterns in the Eastern North Pacific on six measures of tropical cyclone activity is examined between 1971 and 2002. Projections are made for future storm activity under various climate change scenarios. The main development region of tropical cyclone formation is divided into eastern and western development regions. Relationships are evaluated using methods of trend analysis, extreme year analysis, and statistical correlation and regression. Sea surface temperatures are significantly correlated with tropical cyclone activity especially in the western development region. Stronger correlations are found with intensity measures in the western region whereas in the eastern region stronger correlations are found with duration measures. Significant relationships are identified between tropical cyclone activity and some Northern Hemisphere teleconnection patterns. Future storm activity is projected to increase significantly with warmer sea surface temperatures in a CO2-enhanced climate however projections are fraught with uncertainly.