| Limited area numerical weather prediction models are used for a wide range of research and operational applications. They are typically used to generate a single deterministic forecast, the skill of which is limited by such factors as initial condition error, physical parameterizations, dynamics, and numerics. This has prompted the use of ensemble forecast systems that have been shown to be more skillful than a single deterministic forecast provided that it has sufficient variability. However, ensemble variability can be adversely affected by the lateral boundary conditions associated with limited area models. The purpose of this research is to determine if lateral boundary conditions have a negative impact on short-range (0--12 hour) forecasts of ensemble variability of precipitation. Overall, results indicated that the lateral boundary conditions impacted the actual precipitation forecast but had very limited impact on the variability of precipitation. |
