| Research on how actuarial risk assessment results are to be communicated and what effect they have on decision makers has received scarce empirical attention. Using a 2X3 factorial design, this experiment found that decision-makers are sensitive to differences in actuarial risk probabilities, but that the decision for commitment largely depends on how the risk probability is framed. A derivative of Support Theory (Tversky & Koehler, 1994) is used to explain this violation of extensionality. Furthermore, contrary to public opinion surveys, analyses of base rate assumptions indicate that decisions makers do not have unrealistic perceptions of mental disorder and violence. Substantive and theoretical implications are discussed. vi. |
