The dynamics of international rivalry: An issue conflict approach

This project examines how issue conflict diversity and issue conflict accumulation affect levels of hostility among strategic rivals. In relation to issue conflict diversity, previous research has examined differences between spatial issue conflict and non-spatial issue conflict, as well as, differences between spatial rivalries and positional rivalries. Developing a more expansive issue conflict typology, this dissertation examines how not only spatial and positional issue conflicts affect international rivals, but also how identity and ideological issue conflicts affect rival relations. It is expected that identity and ideological issue conflicts will tend to exert especially strong effects on determining whether states will engage in dissent conflict, in which states support opposition to their rivals' regime in hopes of bringing about regime change, since identity and ideological issue conflicts are generally closely linked to particular governments or regimes. An examination of original data collected on issue conflict among 173 strategic rivals (in conjunction with data collected by the Correlates of War project) demonstrates that identity and ideological issue conflicts tend to exert strong effects on the likelihood of states engaging in dissent conflict, as well as, direct militarized conflict.;Along with issue conflict diversity, it is expected that issue conflict accumulation affects rivalry relations. While research on issue conflict in world politics has generally examined differences across issues in relation to the propensity for states to engage in militarized conflict, in the context of international rivalry, states often contend over multiple issues simultaneously. Although some rival dyads may be initially driven by a single issue conflict, issue disputes tend to accumulate over the course of rivalries due to enemy images of the other. As issue conflicts accumulate, with more at stake, states become more willing to bear the costs of war seeking the settlement of such conflicts in their favor. Empirical results support the hypothesis that among strategic rivals, issue conflict accumulation tends to be positively associated with the presence of militarized conflict.