Tora! Tora! Tora!: The attack on Pearl Harbor from a prospect theoretic, culture-centric perspective

Current research indicates that culture is an integral part of decision-making by elites; thus, logically, different cultures will arrive at different outcomes, ceteris paribus. While knowing exactly what a leader will do is akin to having a crystal ball, I believe it is possible to narrow the array of possibilities by looking at what factors form the belief system of decision-makers. In conjunction with Kahneman and Tversky's approach of decision-making under risk, prospect theory (PT), a methodology of behavior calculus can be devised for one of the most egregious and puzzling events of the 20th century, the bombing of Pearl Harbor. In this thesis I argue that western, specifically US, foreign policy analysts have failed to take into consideration the role of cultural determinants when making assessments of Japan's reference point in the prelude to the Pacific War.