| We evaluated the potential impact of a Mediterranean fruit fly infestation in Florida. We developed a Bayesian decision framework to analyze the costs of Florida Medfly prevention, detection and eradication programs under early versus late detection scenarios. Modeling results support the hypothesis that optimal trapping density varies across locations and seasons. Because of the low probability of detecting small Medfly populations, the corresponding optimal trapping densities are high, ranging from 82 to 465 traps per ha for McPhail traps and from 9 to 80 traps per ha for Jackson traps. It would be extremely costly to maintain such high trap densities over a wide area. Alternative solutions lie in the search for an increase in pesticide efficacy and an improvement of the trapping technology. Development of more effective female-targeted trapping systems will provide a new dimension to the detection of small Medfly populations.; Partial equilibrium models were also used to investigate welfare changes for the major fruit and vegetable crops under scenarios of a 3 mo, 6 mo, and 1 y quarantine period. Our analysis provides insight regarding the magnitude of welfare changes associated with a Medfly outbreak and/or infestation in Florida. These changes vary across crops, depending on the competitive position of Florida growers for the crop, size of the infested area, and length of quarantine period.; Finally, we tested the effects of changing the entry conditions on the level of Medfly risk in Florida. Our sensitivity-analysis tests showed the increasing number of international passengers entering Florida to be the driving parameter affecting Medfly introduction and establishment in Florida. Additional passenger baggage-clearance costs will be continuously needed to keep pace with the increasing number of international travelers entering Florida. Another way to mitigate the risk of Medfly introduction into Florida is to encourage and support suppression and eradication activities against fruit fly populations in Caribbean basin countries. |
