| In this study, we use measurements directly from the solar wind, instead of the Kp index, and the SAR method as the basis for determining the local-time dependence of geosynchronous energetic electron fluxes. We use solar wind parameters as input in our model to map GOES-10 > 2 MeV electron measurements to other local tunes and compare them with electron measurements from five widely spaced LANL geosynchronous satellites when they pass through these local times. We explore the effects of solar wind velocity, dynamic pressure, and density on the local-time dependence of geosynchronous electron fluxes. We find that, for the given 4.3 year data set, only using solar wind velocity gives rise to the best results. We check the efficacy of the model by mapping GOES-10 > 2 MeV electron measurements at other local tunes to local noon, and comparing with electron measurements from LANL satellites when they pass through local noon: we achieve an out of sample prediction efficiency (PE) of 0.83 and a linear correlation coefficient (LC) of 0.93 for January 2000; whereas we achieve a PE of 0.81 and LC of 0.92 for the year 2000. The PE and LC are different when mapping GOES-10 > 2 MeV electron measurements at one local time to other local times, with the highest PE in prenoon and afternoon sectors, and lowest PE at midnight. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)... |
