| This work studies the changes of forest cover that have happened in the Lempa River Basin of El Salvador during the period 1979-2003. Although historically the trend has been towards the loss of forest cover since colonial times, over the period of study a large increase in forest cover was detected. The main tool of evaluation was the analysis of LANDSAT satellite imagery. Images for the dates 1979, 1990-91, and 2003 were classified into forest and noon-forest land covers. Then the changes in land cover were analyzed to determine what were the social, geophysical and climatic drivers determining why and where these new forest appeared. The results indicate that there has been an overall increase in forest cover from 20% in 1979 to 43% in 2003. Although there has been extensive deforestation, this has happened mostly around the main urban centers within the basin. In the more rural and remote areas, the tendency has been towards a resurgence in forest cover. The increase in forest was found to be significantly related to remittances, inaccessibility to roads and markets, density of urban populations, poverty and the civil war of the 1980s. Among the geospatial factors that determined where deforestation and reforestation happened were distance to roads and urban centers, slope, elevation, land use capability, and irrigation potential. The results indicate that the tendency in the future will be towards further reforestation but at a slower rate. Although reforestation and deforestation happened simultaneously, there are clear differences in the spatial patterns that each of these phenomena follow. In terms of climate, it was found areas subjected to inter-annual rainfall extremes due to El Nino Southern Oscillation, particularly areas with low agricultural potential, were more likely to be abandoned and left to revert to forest than those with more stable rainfall. The results of this study support the hypothesis that El Salvador is undergoing a Forest Transition process, that is a recuperation of forest cover due to urbanization, migration and economic growth. |
